Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis of Russia's Economic Performance and Policy Responses

Abstract

This study uses a simultaneous equation model (SEM) to examine the relationship between oil price fluctuations and Russia's macroeconomic performance. It uses a comprehensive set of variables, including GDP growth, investment, export and consumption rates, exchange rates, and oil prices, to estimate the interactions between these variables. The study reveals significant findings on the macroeconomic impact of oil price fluctuations on Russia's economies, including short-term and long-term effects on GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rates. It also examines the role of monetary policy in mitigating the adverse effects of oil price shocks on the economy. The study highlights Russia's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations, especially due to its heavy reliance on oil exports. It also examines the effectiveness of policy responses, such as fiscal measures and exchange rate interventions, in mitigating the impact of oil price shocks on Russia's macroeconomic stability. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, aiming to enhance economic resilience and stability in the face of oil market fluctuations.